Many United States economists are bullish about economic growth in the coming year.
The National Association for Business Economics released survey results on Monday. The full measure of the nation’s economy is a gross domestic product. The study said that 67 percent of respondents expect America’s GDP to grow by 1.1% to 2% this year. A growing number of respondents expect even higher growth of up to 3%. The number of respondents with such expectations in October was 20%, and now it is 30%.
In late December and early January, the survey of 97 NABE members about United States conditions was conducted. After the study, several economic bright signs became apparent. The Chief Economist for the Associated General Contractors of America and a NABE spokesperson is Ken Simonson. He also said that there are some positive expectations for the United States economy. Canada, the United States, and Mexico neared completion on a trade agreement. The stock market closed the year with a high note. Federal Reserve Bank kept interest rates low added the Ken Simonson.
The survey was before China, and the United States signed a preliminary trade agreement. Nevertheless, the deal was telegraphed for quite some time.
Fears of recession abate and businesses are confident toward the health of the United States economy.
Simonson said that the fact they think their companies will better-off would undoubtedly contribute to a higher gross domestic product. They are going to see more sales in their companies, and they will want to hire more people if they think that the overall economy is on its way up.
The survey showed that there are strong consumer confidence and low unemployment. After a dip in the previous month, salaries and wages grew in the fourth quarter of last year.
United States’ Industries
Nevertheless, hiring was flat in the fourth quarter, for the first time in a decade. Companies continued to hire more in finance, real estate, and insurance. Nevertheless, hiring decreased in the communications and transportation industries.
Since the number of available jobs is larger than the number of people seeking employment, hiring has become more difficult. Thus, it is no reason to panic.
NABE business condition survey chair and senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School is Megan Greene. He said that the hiring decreased because of the difficulty of finding workers rather than a pullback in demand.
Compared to the last one, expectations for job growth were much higher in the most recent survey. Compared to just 19% in the previous poll, 27% of economists expect to hire to increase in 2020.
Last October, the United States unemployment rate dropped to its lowest point since 1969. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, payroll employment growth is up. Also, there are more job openings than unemployed individuals who are searching for a job position.
Problems for American manufacturers came from the tariffs on imported goods and retaliation by United States trading partners like China. In 2019, 61% of businesses said that they were unaffected by tariffs. Nevertheless, some industries were hit harder than others by tariffs.
All in all, we can see that there are some positive signs for the United States’ economic growth.