Recently, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) has reported on “Commodity Flow in the Philippines,” showing the analysis showed the volume of goods traded during the last three months of 2019. The result has shown a considerable trading fall from 7.24 million tons to 3.95 million tons.
Unfortunately, Nine out of the ten commodity categories reported a deterioration in trade volume. Food and live animals — which estimated for the largest share of trade in terms of volume — dropped to 1.21 million tons. However, its trade value went down by 50.8% to 20.76 billion.
Also, the Philippine Statistics Authority report\ that one of the largest declines noticeably immediately was in manufacturing goods that classify chiefly by materials. Its value also went down by the whole 35.2 % to 13.86 billion.
However, overall after concluding the general statistical analyses, PSA highlighted the fact that during specific calculations, the domestic trade data exclude the flow of goods through the land. The main reason is that there is no approach to capture data in the archipelagic islands of the country.
Experts’ point of view on domestic commodity flows contract in Q4
The Chief Economist of said UnionBank of the Philippines, Inc. state that the PSA’s recent data release was surprising. He stated that the fourth-quarter domestic product picked up to 6.4%. This means that domestic trade has increased in both value and volume.
On the other hand, the Chief Economist of Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Michael L. Ricafort thought that the annual declines in domestic trade value and volume for the quarter were not surprising. As the existing Trade War US-China tensions directly affect manufacturing output and imports.
There are optimistic they expect the trade and GDP volume to improve; however, it won’t be so easy.
Coronavirus 2019 outbreak may affect domestic trade. Demand for trade goods may be driven by one’s perception of health and safety.
If the 2020 national budget and the extension of the validity of the 2019 budget both get approved on time, there is hope that the domestic trade will pick up in the future.