The EUR base rate pair is currently testing critical support levels around 1.0670. Several factors influence its movements, making it a pair to watch closely in the coming sessions.
- Volatility Ahead: Currently, volatility is on the way to increasing due to key risk events. Including speeches by Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde, the EUR/USD faces a pivotal moment.
- Scenario 1: If the EUR/USD forum closes below 1.0670, it could trigger a bearish trend towards trendline support at 1.0555 and potentially even the year’s lows near 1.0450.
- Scenario 2: Alternatively, if prices rebound from current levels, a move towards 1.0765 and even 1.0840 is possible. This scenario would require renewed bullish sentiment.
Recent movements in EUR/USD are partly driven by the US dollar’s performance, measured by the DXY index. The dollar’s recent strength has contributed to the downward pressure on 100 EUR to USD.
While EUR/USD grapples with support, USD/JPY is recovering and has breached the psychological level of 150.00. The pair’s uptrend is due in part to weak Japanese wage growth data, which reduces the likelihood of near-term monetary policy normalization by the Bank of Japan.
Upward Potential: If USD/JPY’s gains continue, it may target resistance at 150.90 and, ultimately, the 2023 swing high near 151.00, indicating a bullish trend.
Downside Risks: However, a shift in market sentiment could lead to a pullback, with initial support at 149.00. Further declines may target 147.25 and 146.00, contingent on negative economic developments or changing sentiment.
Impact of Fed Speeches on EUR Swap Rates
Three Fed members, including Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak about the economic landscape and monetary policy. Their comments will influence market sentiment and the US dollar’s performance.
The markets will closely watch for hints on future interest rates and economic conditions. A more hawkish perspective from the speakers could bolster the dollar, while reserved comments might weaken it.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis and BOE Updates
Bank of England (BOE) Governor Bailey might attempt to manage expectations for BOE rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BOC) could provide insights into their rate decisions. The minutes from these central banks will be under close scrutiny, as they may impact currency pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
As these central banks navigate monetary policy in their respective economies, traders and investors should keep a close eye on their announcements and speeches. The currency markets remain sensitive to shifts in monetary policy and economic conditions, making these central bank updates crucial for traders.