Key Points:
- USD/MXN finds support at a 50-day SMA of 16.80. Resistance at a 100-day SMA of 16.94 and a psychological barrier at 17.00.
- Banxico may cut rates later this year, while the Fed remains cautious, with possible rate hikes if economic conditions demand.
The USD/MXN currency pair has recently seen a notable uptick in value, currently trading at 16.93, marking a 0.31% increase. This movement indicates a potential shift in the market dynamics as the pair approaches a critical juncture in its technical structure. Analysts note that the exchange rate is possibly bottoming out after a decline, setting a stage for potential bullish momentum.
USD/MXN: Between 16.80 Support and 17.92 High
In technical analysis, the USD/MXN pair shows key support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 16.80. The 2023 and year-to-date lows identify important levels. These are at 16.62 and 16.25, respectively. The immediate resistance is the 100-day SMA at 16.94, followed closely by the psychological level of 17.00. Moreover, robust resistance levels include the 200-day SMA at 17.17 and the year-to-date high at 17.92. The bullish shift in the Relative Strength Index and other indicators suggests traders expect upward momentum upon breaching key levels.
Mixed Economic Signals Affect USD/MXN Rate
Mexico’s upcoming economic reports, including the inflation report and monetary policy decision, are set to influence the currency’s valuation. The Mexican automobile industry’s better-than-expected performance contrasts with stalled consumer confidence, painting a mixed economic landscape. In the United States, market participants are keenly awaiting the initial jobless claims and the consumer sentiment survey, which could provide further cues on the economic health and, consequently, the currency’s trajectory.
Interest Rate Cuts Anticipated by Banxico
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to maintain interest rates soon, and analysts project potential rate cuts later in August and September. These adjustments are each expected by 0.25 percentage points. Deputy Governors Irene Espinosa and Jonathan Heath noted that they aim to address ongoing inflation concerns. Similarly, in the U.S., Federal Reserve Chair Neel Kashkari has highlighted a stance to keep rates flat for a prolonged period. However, he admits that a rate hike could be on the table if necessary, based on economic conditions.
USD/MXN Short-Term Projections: Techs and Economics
Market analysts and traders monitoring economic and policy changes will see technical levels and indicators influencing USD/MXN’s short-term direction. Upcoming economic data and policy decisions may boost or weaken the technical analysis’s cautious optimism. Traders will closely monitor these developments, given their major impact on the currency’s movement. Consequently, this affects investment and hedging strategies in the forex market.
