Key Points
- USD/JPY oscillates in a bullish consolidation phase within a known band over the last three weeks.
- Eyes on breaking the 150.75-150.85 resistance zone, the YTD peak.
- The bullish scenario sees targets at 151.00, 151.45, and the 152.00 multi-decade high.
- Support levels at 149.70, with further supports at 149.20 and 149.00.
- Bearish potential could lead to 148.30 and 148.00, nearing the 100-day SMA at 147.75.
- Positive daily oscillators and the impact of 10-year Treasury Yields’ fluctuations underscore the currency’s trajectory.
In the last three weeks, the USD/JPY currency pair has showcased a remarkable ability to oscillate within a familiar band, indicating a bullish consolidation phase. This behaviour underscores the market’s anticipation of a decisive move. The resistance zone between 150.75 and 150.85, marked as the year-to-date (YTD) peak reached in February, now becomes the focal point. A successful breach above this zone could significantly alter the currency pair’s direction.
Bulls Aim for 152.00 After 151.45 Milestone
The journey is clear for bulls: surpassing the 151.00 mark would solidify the positive outlook for USD/JPY. This milestone paves the way to challenge the next resistance at 151.45. An ambitious push beyond this level targets the 152.00 neighbourhood. This region is not uncharted but represents a significant historical peak, reached in October 2022 and retested in November 2023. The ascent towards these levels encapsulates the bullish sentiment surrounding the currency pair.
Bearish Risks: 149.00 Support to 147.75 SMA
Despite the bullish undertone, the currency pair’s journey has its challenges. Immediate support looms at 149.70, highlighted by the overnight swing low. Subsequent support levels at 149.20 and 149.00 serve as critical thresholds. A decisive dip below these marks could sway the market in favour of bearish traders, projecting a potential decline towards 148.30 and further down to the 148.00 markers. This vicinity, closely aligned with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 147.75, represents a pivotal bearish battleground.
Oscillators Positive, 10-Year Yield Influences USD/JPY
Oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, reinforcing a constructive outlook for the USD/JPY pair. External factors further nuanced this technical perspective, notably the movements in 10-year Treasury Yields. A recent slide below the 4.20% threshold and positioning beneath the 200-day moving average at 4.176% introduces a complex layer of macroeconomic influence. Today’s yield hovering around 4.15% has not triggered a strong reaction in USD/JPY, but it remains a critical element to watch.
In essence, the USD/JPY price movement is a narrative of anticipation, resilience, and the strategic interplay of market forces. As traders navigate through these oscillations and resistances, the path forward is dictated by both technical indicators and external economic shifts. With eyes set on breaking past critical resistance levels, the market’s direction hinges on sustained momentum and the broader macroeconomic landscape influencing yield movements.
