The Release of November CPI Figures Caused Dollar Exchange Rate to Decline
The U.S. dollar faced late trading losses on Tuesday following the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for November. The data fueled dovish sentiments on the Federal Reserve, impacting the dollar index measuring against six major peers. Late trading saw a 0.22% decrease, settling at 103.8637.
Impact on Market Dynamics
The closely watched inflation gauge, CPI, showed a 0.1% month-on-month increase in November, with a year-on-year rise of 3.1%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, grew 0.3% month-on-month and 4% year-on-year. Despite being in line with estimates, the report hinted at slower deceleration than expected, influencing market and dollar exchange rate perceptions.
FedWatch and Treasury Yields
CME FedWatch Tool indicates no rate hike expectation at the upcoming meeting. Market bets on rate cuts are likely to occur in May 2024. Preceding the decision, U.S. Treasury yields were declining, with the 2-year rate at 4.71% and 5 and 10-year yields at 4.25% and 4.23%, respectively.
Eurozone Economic Sentiment and British Pound Movement
In contrast, the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index surged to 23.0, exceeding November’s 13.8 figure. The Euro rose to 1.0790 dollars in late New York trading. British wage growth, however, slowed, with the British pound increasing the dollar buyback rate to 1.2563.
Yen Trading and BOJ Speculation
On another front, the U.S. dollars retreated, influenced by volatile trading with the Japanese yen. The Dollar Index fell by 0.3% due to speculation surrounding the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The yen’s unpredictability stems from discussions about the BOJ potentially abandoning its negative interest rates policy.
Market Expectations and Yen Swings
Traders are uncertain about the BOJ’s policy shift, resulting in significant swings in the Japanese yen. While a rate hike was initially anticipated, recent reports suggest it may not happen soon. Market pricing indicates a 9% likelihood of ending negative interest rates next week.
Currency Movements and Fed Projections
China’s yuan edged down after a meeting of the country’s top leaders, while New Zealand’s dollar slumped on softer-than-expected inflation data. The buy dollars Index added 0.1%, with the dollar rising against the yen and euro, as investors focus on the Fed’s updated economic projections.
Fed Chair’s Stance and Rate Cut Expectations
Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary for insights into potential dollar exchange rate cuts in 2024. Although recent signs indicate a soft landing, unexpected rises in consumer prices in November may influence traders who currently price in a quarter-point rate cut in May.
