Ruble against EUR and USD: Forex Analysis

Ruble against EUR and USD: Forex Analysis

Quick Overview

  • Ruble’s Movement: Dropped against the Dollar to 92.55 Rubles; stable versus the Euro at 99.99 Rubles.
  • Trading Activity: Over 26,000 Dollar transactions ($1 billion+) and 10.6 thousand Euro transactions (346.6 million Euros) on the Moscow Exchange.
  • Stock Indices: Moscow Exchange index down by 2.12% to 3,139.50; RTS index decreased by 2.33% to 1,068.09 points.
  • Global Markets: Positive overall, except for India. Futures for American indices and Brent oil prices are up.
  • Key Events: European and US business activity data, US home sales, and oil reserves statistics.
  • Challenges: Sanctions risks and potential further declines in Russian shares due to the Moscow Exchange index’s drop.
  • Currency Outlook: RUB weakening against major currencies with ongoing sanctions risks. Dollar/Ruble is expected to stay within the 90-95 range.
  • Investor Caution: Emphasized due to market volatility and the specificity of financial instruments.

Data from the Moscow Exchange received on Wednesday indicates that the Ruble lost ground to the Dollar, with the exchange rate for settlements reaching 92.55 Rubles, up by 21 kopecks from the previous trading day. In contrast, the exchange rate to the Euro remained unchanged from Tuesday, hovering around 99.99 Rubles. Trading activity was notable, with over 26 thousand transactions in Dollars totalling more than $1 billion and 10.6 thousand transactions in Euros amounting to 346.6 million Euros. The Dollar/Ruble exchange rate ranged between 92.16–92.60, while the Euro/Ruble exchange rate fluctuated between 99.64–100.10.

Moscow Index Down 2.12%, RTS Falls 2.33%

Russian stock indices showed negative dynamics, with the Moscow Exchange index falling by 2.12% to 3,139.50 points and the RTS index dropping by 2.33% to 1,068.09 points by 18:50 Moscow time. However, the Moscow Exchange index’s fall by 2.1% at the end of Wednesday indicates potential continued selling pressure on Russian shares.

Dollar/Ruble Expected in 90-95 Range Amid Tensions

The mood in global markets is generally positive, with Asian markets showing growth, except for the Indian market, which is down. Futures for major American indices have risen, along with Brent oil, trading around $83.3 per barrel. Important macroeconomic events, including the release of business activity indices in Europe and the US, as well as statistics on US home sales and oil reserves, could impact investor sentiment.

Despite the positive external environment, investors remain wary of sanctions risks, which could lead to further market declines. The Moscow Exchange index falling below the support at 3,200 points may trigger stops for some investors, potentially causing a retreat to around 3,100 points. On the currency front, the Ruble is weakening against major world currencies, with the Dollar and Yuan gaining ground and the Euro up by 0.5%. Sanctions risks and limited benefits from stable oil prices and increased foreign currency supply pressure the Ruble.

Given these factors, the Ruble is expected to attempt stabilization against major world currencies at current levels, with the Dollar/Ruble pair likely remaining within the 90-95 Ruble range. However, individual investors should carefully consider their investment profiles and goals, as the mentioned financial instruments or transactions may not be suitable for everyone.