Key Points
- Geopolitical tensions from the Israel-Hamas conflict drove oil prices to a 6% increase last week.
- Brent crude futures dipped by 0.5% to $81.76 a barrel, and WTI futures fell by 0.6% to $76.38.
- The conclusion of Israeli strikes in southern Gaza and geopolitical risks impact oil market sentiment.
- US output is poised to rise with the highest rig count since mid-December.
- Holidays in several major economies have subdued market activity in Asia.
In early Asian trading on Monday, oil prices experienced a downturn as the market responded to Israel’s announcement of concluding its military operations in southern Gaza. Brent crude futures saw a modest decline of 43 cents, settling at $81.76 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped by 46 cents to $76.38 a barrel. This movement reflects the market’s immediate reaction to the easing of geopolitical tensions following intense military activity in the region.
6% Surge Last Week: Geopolitics Stoke Oil Volatility
The broader geopolitical landscape underpins these price movements. The escalation between Israel and Hamas has raised fears of a wider conflict, potentially disrupting Middle East oil supplies. This concern contributed to a 6% increase in oil prices over the previous week, highlighting the global oil markets’ sensitivity to regional stability. The announcement by the Israeli military of ending its strikes, following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal of a ceasefire proposal from Hamas, marks a significant moment in this ongoing geopolitical narrative.
US Rigs at Peak Since December: Output to Escalate
Beyond immediate geopolitical tensions, supply and demand factors are crucial in shaping oil market dynamics. US energy firms’ oil and gas rigs have surged to a mid-December peak, indicating a potential increase in domestic output. With production reaching 13.3 million barrels daily, the US has become a key player in the global oil supply chain. However, demand concerns have been heightened by comments from a Federal Reserve official expressing a lack of interest in recommending an interest rate cut, which could slow economic growth and, consequently, oil demand.
Asia’s Holiday Lull: Subdued Market Activity Detected
Trading in Asia was subdued due to holidays in China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Malaysia. This temporary reduction in activity may briefly soften the impact of geopolitical and supply-demand dynamics on the volatile global oil prices.
