A major commodity exporter, Australia, expects the supply of new energy metals to increase in the coming years. Still, in light of global climate change targets, the government plans to keep steady supplies of fossil fuels like coal and natural gas.
Gaining from natural resource export revenues will hit a record of A$464.3 billion ($315.3 billion) in the 2022-2023 financial year ending June 30, said the Office of the Chief Economist in the Department of Industry, Science and Resources in its most recent quarterly report published on April 3.
It is higher than the previous record of A$421.6 billion in 2021-2022. The government’s commodity market forecast doesn’t expect the strong gains to continue if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine eases.
Australia is the world’s largest exporter of iron ore, coking coal, liquified natural gas (LNG), and lithium, second for thermal coal, and third for gold, ores, and copper concentrates.
Consequences of the increase
By the fiscal year 2027-2028, commodity revenue will fall to A$335.9 billion, down 3.7% from the previous year.
One of the factors behind the lower earnings forecasts’ is the easing in prices, first due to the decline in the global economy and then due to the increase in the global supply of essential commodities.
A state weather forecaster predicts Australia will export increasing quantities of new energy metals, including lithium, nickel, copper, and zinc.
Lithium export volume should increase from 3,080 in 2022-2023 to 4,462 tons in 2027-2028. The price will fall to $2,700 per ton from $4,104 in the current fiscal year.
Nickel exports should increase from 164,000 this year to 215,000 tons by 2027-2028. The price will fall from $24,414 to $21,313 per ton.
Copper shipment will increase from 873,000 this year to 970,000 tons in 2027-2028. Hence, the price will defy the downtrend, rising to $9,954 a ton from $8,406 a ton this year.
Coal exportation
Thermal coal exports should reach 195 million tons in 2027-2028, up from a million this year. However, the price might fall from $313 to $103 per ton.
Coking coal shipments are expected to increase from 164 million to 172 million tons, although the price will fall from $296 to $185 a ton.
