GBP/USD prospect in advance of inflation data

GBP/USD prospect in advance of inflation data

GBP/USD was recently trading at 1.2425, flat all day, going from an overnight low of 1.2366 to an overnight high of 1.2449 as markets review UK data and in today’s inflation report after another round of ammunition, keeping an eye out.

In the three months of February, there was an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate on Tuesday. It rose one notch to 3.8%. However, the average hourly wage was 5.9% year-on-year versus 5.1% expected and 5.9% revised (up from 5.7% previously). The data focuses on the Bank of England’s rate hike at next month’s meeting.

As such, Rabobank analysts noted that speculators’ net short positions in GBP have fallen to their lowest levels since March 2022, reflecting improved sentiment combined with a plethora of less negative UK economic data. BoE policy in May is approaching. The market is fully pricing in another 25-basis point rate hike and is considering the risk of further tightening in the coming months.

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman told that the WIRP is forecasting a roughly 90% chance of a 25-basis point hike, with the next 25-basis point hike scheduled for August 3. The probability of the last increase in September or November is almost 20%. As a result, the prime interest rate is just under 4.75% versus between 4.50%-4.75% early last week.

GBP/USD technical analysis

In Asia, GBP/USD is approaching 1.2425-20 in a 2-week bearish wedge pattern early Wednesday morning. Therefore, the quote reflects a cautious sentiment ahead of March’s key UK inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The pair recently rebounded from the lower line of the ascending wedge data, connected to the constant RSI (14), suggesting a further price rally. The 21 SMA around 1.2435 limits the immediate price rise of GBP/USD.

Next, the 1.2500 laps and the top line of the mentioned downtrend around 1.2555 at press time could pose a challenge for the pair buyers.

If GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2555, it will challenge the downtrend on the chart and could push the price toward May 2022 high near 1.2665. However, a rounded value of 1.2600 can serve as a stopover at the sta