The AUD/JPY currency pair has recently witnessed a notable uptrend, achieving five consecutive sessions of gains. This steady climb peaked at a fresh five-month high of 101.66, settling slightly lower at 101.50. Such momentum is underscored by a robust 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), persistently holding above 50, suggesting that the upward momentum might be sustained over the short term.
Regarding technical landscapes, AUD/JPY is surrounded by multiple layers of support and resistance that frame its trading boundaries. Immediate support is found at 101.00, followed closely by a significant psychological level at 100.00. Furthermore, additional support is provided by the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the lower channel boundary, marked at 99.87 and 99.00, respectively. On the flip side, the pair faces immediate resistance at 102.00, a level traders will watch closely if the pair’s ascent continues.
Turning to the monetary landscape, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adopts a hawkish stance. Consequently, it has postponed rate cut expectations from November 2024 to February 2025. This adjustment reflects a proactive approach to sustaining economic growth and managing inflation, thus influencing the strength of the Australian dollar. Conversely, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its interest rate at 0%, marking stability after its first rate increase since 2007. Japan’s inflation metrics, particularly the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), remain subdued and well below the 2% target, contributing to the BoJ’s conservative position.
From an economic data perspective, Australia’s recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report exceeded expectations last Wednesday. Consequently, this has driven Australian government bond yields to a 21-week high of 4.59%. This indicates higher investor confidence in the Australian economy and its currency. On the other hand, Japan’s CPI data showed underperformance, aligning with a more cautious approach from investors towards the yen.
For traders, the contrast between Australia’s strong economy and Japan’s cautious inflation paints a compelling story for AUD/JPY. Analyzing support and resistance, contrasting monetary policies, and economic performances creates a strategic framework to anticipate future movements. Keeping abreast of these developments will be crucial for those looking to navigate the complexities of this currency pair effectively.
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