Forex Analysis: USD/INR Levels from 82.65 to 83.71

Key Points:

• USD/INR key resistance at 83.50 and 83.71, with strong support from 83.15 down to 82.65.
• USD/INR maintains a long-term positive outlook, supported by an ascending triangle and a robust position above the 100-day EMA.
• Economic decisions from the US and manufacturing data from India will likely influence the currency pair’s movement.

The USD/INR currency pair has been demonstrating a strong performance, maintaining a constructive outlook in the long term. It forms an ascending triangle and remains robustly positioned above the critical 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This setup is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands around 55, suggesting that the pair is comfortably within bullish territory. This combination of factors indicates a sustained uptrend, barring significant external shocks.

USD/INR Barriers: 83.50 Upper, 83.15 Lower Boundaries

On the upside, the pair faces immediate resistance at the 83.50 level, noted on April 15. The upper boundary of the ascending triangle marks further resistance at 83.71. Traders might closely follow the psychologically significant mark of 84.00 as the next bullish milestone. Conversely, the primary support level is currently at 83.15, coinciding with both the lower limit of the ascending triangle and the 100-day EMA. Should the pair slip below this point, subsequent support levels at 82.78 and 82.65—recorded on January 15 and March 11, respectively—will serve as lower thresholds.

USD/INR Reactions to US Interest Rates and Jobless Claims

Recent decisions by the US Federal Reserve to maintain the status quo on interest rates have caused a modest dovish reaction in the markets, subsequently weighing on the Greenback. The Fed Chair’s remarks that a rate hike is unlikely in the next policy move have only reinforced this sentiment. However, the Fed’s cautious stance over potential future interest rate cuts and a higher-for-longer rate narrative might uplift the USD. Traders are now keenly watching the upcoming economic data releases, including the Initial Jobless Claims, Goods Trade Balance, and Employment Data, for further directional cues.

India’s Economic Data: HSBC PMI at 59.1 Boosts INR

In India, the INR showed signs of recovery on Thursday, benefiting from the weakened USD. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continues its efforts to stabilise the currency amid ongoing market volatility. On the economic front, India is anticipated to post a robust HSBC Manufacturing PMI of 59.1 for April, reflecting strong sectoral growth that could bolster the INR further.

Overall, the USD/INR pair presents an interesting play of technical setups and economic fundamentals that investors must navigate carefully. The upcoming US and Indian economic data could significantly impact currency dynamics, offering lucrative opportunities for savvy traders.