A Potential Slide in Bitcoin Recovery: Resistance at $28,485

A Potential Slide in Bitcoin Recovery: Resistance at $28,485

Bitcoin (BTC) recently made an attempt to extend its 2023 rally. Yet it grapples with the $28,485 resistance, the midpoint of the $25,166 to $31,804 range. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicate a slowing bullish momentum. Therefore, a possible surge in bearish activity may occur.

However, with the momentum indicators not yet showing bearish signals, another short-lived surge to $30,500, signaling a potential Bitcoin recovery, could precede a downward trend. This move is expected to trigger a collection of buy-stop liquidity from the swing highs formed between August 8 and July 20.

Bitcoin’s Standstill around $28,000

Bitcoin’s price currently hovers around $28,000 without a definitive directional bias. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metrics over various timeframes (7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day) all approach zero, indicating a neutral stance among BTC holders. Notably, both sell-side and buy-side liquidity sit at approximately $30,300 and $24,900, respectively, suggesting potential zones of interest.

Following this liquidity surge, Bitcoin to USD might instigate a sell-off, retesting the $24,808 support level. If breached, it could lead to a decline towards the $21,351 foundation.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s Balanced Performance

Over the last month, Bitcoin’s price has surged by 12.00%, but it now treads water around $28,000. Most investors are wondering how to sell Bitcoin with the most profit. However, the current stage indicates that holders stand at a near equilibrium in terms of profit and loss. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) index is employed to assess average Bitcoin profit/loss for BTC investors over specific periods. With MVRV figures close to zero across various intervals, the market lacks a clear bullish or bearish stance.

Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Bitcoin

Bitcoin investors need to remain attentive due to the broader economic perspective after the robust October 6 jobs report. The report included a surprising addition of 336,000 jobs in September. This unexpected event spurred a rally in the US Dollar and a short-term dip in risk-on markets.

The imminent release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes bears significant weight, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell might further signal a rate hike in November. The CME FedWatch Tool, which initially indicated a 30.90% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, has since dropped to 21.20% following the jobs report. The majority expects the Fed to maintain the current policy rate of 5.25% to 5.50%.

Technical Indicators Suggest a Potential Upside Move

Bitcoin’s price is currently below $28,352, the midpoint of a significant crash between July 13 and September 11. Despite this, both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) remain void of bearish signals. This suggests a possibility of a Bitcoin recovery with an upward trajectory, with a potential target being the buy-side liquidity situated above the swing highs from July 20 to August 8. This move would constitute an approximately 9.00% ascent.