Uncertainty Concerning the Economic Recovery of China

Some private economists forecast say that China’s economic growth will get back on track in the second track. Nevertheless, there is a debate about how strong it will be.

Most probably, for the first time since 1976, China will suffer a first-quarter contraction for the first time. It is because the coronavirus pandemic continues to damage the global economy.

Thus, there are some doubts about the strength of the economic recovery of China. Meanwhile, the rest of the world still grapples with the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Thus, private economists started to echo Beijing’s forecast for a second-quarter economic rebound.

In the first quarter, for the first time since the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976, China will most probably suffer a contraction. They heap pressure on the government for steading the economy and ensuring the growing unemployment problem of China won’t get worse.

Economic Situation of China

A second-quarter bounce back will also leave the door open, but only a crack, for the Communist Party of China to achieve its goal doubling the size of GDP between 2010 and 2020. The target that analysts are estimating will require a minimum growth rate of 5.6 percent for the full year. 

The second quarter is the period from April to June. Thus, the economy’s performance in the second quarter is essential for the government to get the economy back on track. All that information wrote China’s most significant brokerage analysts from Citic Securities on Tuesday.

Cheng Qiang and Zhu Jianfang are Citic analysts. They said that the second quarter might be a critical turning point. It is because there will be a significant rebound of activity of the economy from the first quarter.

The headline economic growth rate can return to the regular track of 6 percent or higher in the third and fourth quarters.