U.S. GDP Growth at 2.2% & CPI Forecast for 2024

Key Points

• U.S. GDP Growth is poised at 2.2%, signalling steady economic expansion.
• Inflation is forecast to decelerate, with CPI at a 2.4% annual rate.
• Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts from mid-2024.
• Economic sentiment improves, hitting a two-year high.
• Stock market achieves new peaks, with S&P 500 and Dow Jones soaring.
• The unemployment rate is near historic lows, expected to rise by 4%.

As we enter 2024, the U.S. economy is on a path of moderate growth and easing inflation. Projected U.S. GDP growth of 2.2% signifies a resilient economic landscape, showcasing robust economic health and potential for future expansion. This growth comes as a breath of fresh air, especially after the tumultuous periods of high inflation rates witnessed in previous years. Consequently, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should drop to 2.4% annually, down from 4.1% in 2023 and 8% in 2022. Such a decline suggests cooling inflationary pressures, likely contributing to a more stable economic environment.

Fed Eyes Rate Cuts from Mid-2024

The Federal Reserve is gearing up for a cautious yet pivotal shift in monetary policy. Anticipated interest rate cuts, slated to commence between April and June 2024, mark a strategic move towards stimulating economic activity. Furthermore, the Federal Funds Rate should see a cautious approach, with potential initial cuts at every other meeting starting possibly in June 2024. As Capital Economists have outlined, this strategy underscores the Fed’s intent to balance economic growth with inflation control.

U.S. GDP: Economic Optimism Hits 2-Year Peak

Recent polls, including a February survey by CBS News, reveal an uptick in economic optimism, reaching the highest level in over two years. Despite the overall negative sentiment, this improvement indicates growing confidence in the economic direction. The stock market mirrors this optimism, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting record highs in the last reported week. Such milestones reflect investor confidence and contribute to the economic momentum.

Unemployment Eyes Slight Rise to 4%

The employment landscape remains robust, with the unemployment rate hovering near a 50-year low of 3.7%, projected to peak at 4% in 2024. Consequently, the robust job market and healthy wage increases are anticipated to boost real disposable income growth significantly. Lael Brainard credits President Biden’s policies for enhancing the investment climate and economic resilience, fueling optimism for 2024.

In 2024, the U.S. economy should show growth, moderate inflation, and robust markets thanks to strategic policies and public sentiment.