The U.K. lifted the national lockdown order governing England starting December 2. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, said, however, a sliding scale of restrictions on business and social activity is likely to remain in place. That will be through to March next year.
Many businesses, especially in the hospitality sector, will find themselves subject to even tighter restrictions on operations.
Sterling gained on the news to test a two-month high. It was however, held back by a warning from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
He warned that a messy post-Brexit transition at the end of December would be ‘worse than Covid.’
On the continent, markets were lifted by an upward revision to German GDP growth Q3 to 8.5%. It was from an initial 8.2%.
However, the more opportune that Ifo business climate index and the French Insee business confidence index for November both declined. Although, it was by less than expected.
Oil Hits Eight-month High
Crude oil prices hit an eight-month high. Confidence in the demand outlook for 2021 strengthened.
By 6:30 AM ET, Brent futures were up 1.0% at $46.50 a barrel. U.S. crude futures climbed 1.2% at $43.58 a barrel.
The focus on Tuesday will likely be on American Petroleum Institute inventory data for last week. This was in the absence of major news from the big global producers.
The market is thinking, with a draw of 333,000 barrels in crude stocks ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday. That is where mobility may suffer from a reluctance to travel due to the pandemic.
ECB Sees Hard Choices
Meanwhile, in other economic news, governments and central banks face a tricky balance. That’s between shocking the economy if they end pandemic support too soon. Moreover, undermining it if they keep measures in place too long. This was to according to a European Central Bank report.
Noting the sheer scale of the fiscal, monetary and regulatory support, the effort has been important in helping companies. Households withstand the crisis. Furthermore, the three prongs of support are intertwined, making their withdrawal a complex task.
Ending measures hastily could lead to cliff effects on households’ and corporates’ income. That’s with knock-on effects for economic activity in 2021. This was written by researchers in the pre-released article from the ECB’s Financial Stability Review, due Wednesday.
The concurrent termination of policy measures could trigger a protracted downward shift in the recovery path.