Key Takeaways
During the Monday market opening, the Turkish Lira held its value against the American dollar, bolstered by the latest economic reports. The Turkish Central Bank’s recent data release showed an unanticipated deceleration in inflation for October. Instead of climbing, the monthly consumer price index saw a rise of just 3.43%, a dip from September’s 4.75% and below the forecasted 3.93%. Annually, inflation hit 61.36%, slightly under the anticipated 62.12% and the prior year’s 61.53% figure for the same month.
The Turkish Central Bank shared further positive news as its foreign currency reserves soared to a new high not seen in over two years, amassing $126.56 billion—a week-on-week uptick of roughly $435 million. Additionally, the bank’s net international reserves climbed by about $2.6 billion, reaching $25.15 billion.
Market players also digested Fitch‘s latest assessment, which upgraded its growth forecast for Turkey’s economy to 4.1%, nudging past the prior 3.9% prediction. Highlighting another area of potential growth, the report projected that Turkey’s Islamic finance sector could breach the $100 billion mark in the coming years, supported by governmental initiatives aimed at doubling the assets of Islamic banking by 2025.
In technical terms, the USD/TRY currency pair exhibited steadiness in European trade, flirting with record highs near the 28.50 lira mark. The currency pair’s trajectory seemed to be locked in a bullish channel for the day’s session, as illustrated by the trading chart.
Should the lira appreciate, it faces upward resistance at 28.75 and 29.00 lira to the dollar. Conversely, a downturn would see it seeking support at approximately 28.10 and 27.90. With the price cruising above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages on daily and four-hour charts, the buying sentiment appears strong, hinting at a persistent bullish trend. As long as the currency pair remains within the upward channel, further gains are anticipated. Investors are advised to monitor these levels closely while practicing sound capital management.
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