In December, U.S. job growth likely slowed. Nevertheless, the pace of hiring probably will remain more than enough. It will keep the longest economic expansion in history on the track. Trade disputes triggered a deepening downturn in the manufacturing sector.
The Federal Reserve published a report on Friday. It concluded that both monetary policy and the economy are in a “good place.” The Labor Department closely watched this employment report.
It will extend the run of upbeat data such as housing, trade, and consumer spending. They are suggesting expansion. Currently, in its 11th year, it is not in immediate danger of suffering from a recession.
The senior economist in Columbus, Ohio, is Ben Ayers. He said that robust job growth at the end of 2019 set the stage for continual strength from the consumer in 2020. It is helping to keep the economy chugging along at a decent clip.
United States President Donald Trump administration’s trade war with China compelled the Fed to cut rates three times in 2019. It is a reason to worry about the downturn to be triggered. Last year, economic growth did slow. It throttled back to 2.1% in the third quarter from 2018’s pace of around 3%.
Next week, a Phase-One deal with China is to receive signatures. In the outlook, policymakers are more confident. Last month, there were signals that borrowing costs could remain unchanged. Economists at the end of last year are pegging growth around a 2.3% rate.
In December nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 164,000, according to Reuters. In November, payrolls surged 266,000. Forty-six thousand production workers at GM. N (General Motors) returned to work after a strike.
Job Growth
In December, there were some of the anticipated slowdowns. It related to seasonal volatility associated with a later than a regular Thanksgiving Day.
Senior global economist at Principal Global Investors in Des Moines, Iowa, is Robin Anderson. He said that in December, more seasonal workers could have had jobs than in November.
The labor market continues to churn out jobs at a healthy clip. Economists had feared that that anecdotal evidence of worker shortages would significantly restrain hiring.
Per month through November, job growth averaged 180,000. To keep up with an increase in the working-age population is above the roughly 100,000 monthly average. December’s expected gains lifted the total job growth for 2019 to more than 2 million.
Last August, the government estimated that the economy created 501,00 fewer jobs. It happened in the previous 12 months through March 2019.
The attention of some Fed officials was towards the projected massive revision. Last week the central bank’s Dec. A policy meeting held. It showed that the payroll employment gains would most probably show less momentum coming into the current year.
In December the unemployment rate expected to have held near a 50-year low of 3.5%. This rate is from the survey of households. Since last January, it declined by five-tenths of a percentage point.
The chief economist at RMS in New York is Joe Brusuelas. He said that they are bringing individuals back into the workforce.
The data is positive for the United States.
