Indian Economy Rise: Q1 at 7.8%, Q3 Peaks at 8.4%

Key Points:

• India’s GDP growth has been impressive, with 7.8%, 7.6%, and 8.4% across the first three-quarters of FY24, surpassing RBI’s early predictions.
• Proposed RBI guidelines increase provision requirements for infrastructure projects, indicating stricter financial oversight.

Indian Economy growth has shown impressive resilience and robustness in fiscal year 2024. The GDP growth over the first three quarters shows a promising trend. Initially, it was 7.8% in the first quarter. Subsequently, it slightly decreased to 7.6% in the second quarter.

Finally, there was a significant spike to 8.4% in the third quarter. These figures suggest an upward trend, positioning the annual growth rate expectation at 8%, surpassing the initial Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) estimate of 7.5% and aligning with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) projection of 7.8%.

Indian Economy Outlook: Projected Annual Growth at 8%

As per Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, there’s a strong possibility that FY24 could close with a growth rate touching 8%, marking it as the fourth consecutive year of substantial growth since the COVID-19 pandemic. This consistent performance is significant as it underscores the resilience of the Indian economy in the face of global economic uncertainties.

Looking ahead to FY25, the IMF estimates a slight moderation in growth at 6.8%, with the RBI’s forecast slightly higher at 7%. Despite this slight deceleration, the economy is expected to maintain its robust growth pattern above the 7% threshold for multiple years.

Strategic Investments Stabilise the Indian Economy

A key factor underpinning India’s economic stamina is the strength of both the financial and corporate sectors’ balance sheets. According to Nageswaran, substantial investments in physical and digital infrastructure are pivotal in fostering non-inflationary growth. This strategic focus enhances the economy’s productivity and stabilises growth by reducing reliance on external shocks.

Above-Normal Monsoon Expected to Boost Agricultural Output

The monsoon plays a crucial role in shaping India’s agricultural output and, by extension, its overall economic performance. The expectation of an above-normal monsoon bodes well for the agricultural sector. However, the distribution of rainfall—both spatial and temporal—will be critical in determining its actual impact on the economy. Effective utilisation of favourable monsoon conditions could further bolster economic stability and growth.

Financial Sector Reform: From 0.4% to 5% Provision Increase

In 2022-23, household savings accounted for 5.1% of net financial savings, indicating a shift from financial assets to real sectors. This transition underscores a broader change in investment patterns within the economy.

Furthermore, the RBI’s draft guidelines for under-construction infrastructure projects propose a marked increase in provision requirements—from 0.4% to 5% during construction and 2.5% post-completion. This shift towards stricter financial oversight and risk management aims to boost the sector’s robustness against potential stress points.