Factory Orders, Trade Data Due; API Inventories Due

Those tracking the recovery in numbers rather than restrictions can await the release of factory orders data for March at 10 AM ET (1400 GMT). It will follow  after the U.S. trade balance data for March at 8:30 AM ET.

The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers survey will report an all-time high for its orders subindex. This reflected pent-up demand for a broad range of goods he ISM said. 

The orders data will be published a day after this. Meanwhile, inventories hit an all-time low.

Progress in restocking will largely depend on ironing out disruptions in supply chains. The ISM survey’s prices paid index soared to a 13-year high of 89.4.

The most acutely disrupted segment remains to be Semiconductors. Germany’s Infineon warned overnight that the slow restart of its Texas factory after February’s blizzards will weigh on sales. Those are sales throughout the current quarter.

Aramco Churns out Cash to Pay its Dividend; API

Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco posted a sharp increase in profit in Q1 of 2021. Output restraint supports a sharp rally in crude prices.

It reported a profit of $21.7 billion and free cash flow of $18.2 billion. The free cash flow of $18.2 billion wasn’t quite enough to cover a dividend payout of $18.7 billion that remains the world’s largest. Among the oil companies in the world, Saudi Aramco is the largest.

On Tuesday, crude prices forged higher, encouraged by the latest news on the U.S. and Europe’s reopenings. It is likely to unfreeze the market for jet fuel. 

U.S. crude prices added 1.7% at $65.61 a barrel, while Brent crude gained 1.9% at $68.81 a barrel. At 4:30 PM ET, as usual, the American Petroleum Institute (API) releases its weekly inventories data.

CO2 Futures 

While most commodities were rallying hard, CO2 futures were hitting new records almost every day.

Under the EU’s CO2 trading scheme, futures on emissions trading rights hit 50 euros a ton for the first time on Tuesday. This was due to a combination of speculative activity and the tendency of high-polluting companies covered by the scheme. That was to put off remedial measures to offset excess emissions until the last minute.

Since December, prices have doubled as the industrial recovery from the pandemic sped up. It was forcing firms to mitigate an unexpectedly steep rebound in their emissions. 

On May 23, the EU is due to discuss expanding its emissions trading scheme. This was to cover more sectors of industry, as part of its broader strategy to reach carbon neutrality.