Job growth in September was forecasted to have been less robust than August. It is because come companies made layoffs permanent, and others looked to trim costs.
On Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, the September report was out. It will most probably show that nonfarm payrolls are up to 800,000, compared to 1.37 million in August. It is according to Dow Jones. Before the presidential election in November, the monthly employment report will come out.
Since millions of jobs lost in March and April because of the pandemic, it will most probably show a steady recovery in the labor market. Hospitality and leisure will most likely show gains as the economy continues to reopen. Due to the surge in home building, construction will most probably show to have been a strong area.
According to Dow Jones, the unemployment rate will show a fall from 8.4% to 8.2%.
Stephen Stanley is a chief economist at Amherst Pierpont. He said that it is kind of bad news, good news situation. The bad news is that they are only halfway back to the pre-pandemic level for payrolls.
Pierpont thinks they are still making progress. Still, it is such a long way to go that they will get a few more months of significant increases. Moreover, they have seen a gradual deceleration from month to month. Stanley thinks it should continue.
Stanley forecasts to see over one million jobs added. Moreover, he expects the unemployment rate to fall to near eight percent.
The situation of the September
This week Disney said that it would eliminate 28,000 jobs, mostly at theme parks. Furthermore, airlines will most probably lay off tens of thousands more workers if they do not receive government aid. The Disney layoffs come. It is because Disneyland in California remains closed. It is because the state has not allowed theme parks to open.
Stanley says that those layoffs relate to specific COVID-related circumstances. Nevertheless, other businesses cut staff as companies look at their current activity.
Stanley added that he thinks some of the other we are seeing, some of Wall Street’s layoffs is a different story. That is more a return to usual management. They are not going to lay off anyone amid the crisis. One should be careful taking some of those headlines and saying there is a crazy number of layoffs.
Diane Swonk is a Grant Thornton economist. She is not upbeat in her assessment of the September job growth. She forecasts that 700,000 jobs were added, and 750,000 before the impact of government census workers leaving the workforce.
She said there must be some hospitality and leisure hire. Nevertheless, September includes Labor Day. On that day, some seasonal hiring is pared back.
She said that hospitality and leisure are still 4.4 million in the hole. Foodservice dominates hospitality and leisure. Leading to more layoffs, Winter is coming. Thus, some outdoor dining could end in some places.
Also, Swonk said that she worries that online schooling hurts the job market for parents who can not return to work. It is because Schools do not need as many staff in buildings.