The original stock-to-flow model calls time on the phase of Bitcoin. At around $10,000. And it has not been wrong so far.
It is high time for BTC (Bitcoin) to start its next significant price rise. That is what the creator of one of the best-known Bitcoin price models is saying.
Quant analyst PlanB, in a tweet on September 14, highlighted sings that BTC/USD will repeat historical gains.
PlanB said that the time is right to start an order of magnitude step up, referring to the original incarnation of his S2F (stock-to-flow) model.
He wrote alongside a new chart that it is the 2019 time series model on historical Bitcoin data only (no real estate data used, or gold, or silver, or diamonds).
The quant analyst said that we see the jump in model value at halving. Moreover, there is a corresponding drop in the S2F multiple/model error. Thus, it is time to go up.
The original S2F chart is differing from the more recent S2FX (stock-to-flow cross-asset) model. It incorporates macro factors and introducing ‘phases’ in the metamorphosis of Bitcoin as an asset. It calls for an average Bitcoin price of $288,000 before 2024.
Bitcoin has put in ‘red dots’ on the model, since the May halving. It has run to forecasts, if not a similar fashion to what happened after 2016.
Michael Van de Poppe is a Cointelegraph market analyst. He sees the same pattern emerge from a technical analysis perspective.
He tweeted on September 14 if you would like to compare market cycles and periods. The current state of the market is comparable to 2016.
With long sideways consolidation periods, slow upwards grind. Several were seen in 2016. In 2020 or 2021, it will likely happen.
There is a question where the source of funds will come from to propel BTC/USD towards $100,000. PlanB highlighted a blog post about stock-to-flow and confirmed that his hypothesis remained valid