The weekly close for the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets was impressive. The price of Bitcoin climbed straight up to the critical resistance level of $28,600. This places the price back just below the crucial threshold that divides BTC from $30,000 after seven unsuccessful efforts.
A significant price increase will also help the overall cryptocurrency market. Since the altcoin rotation, or “altcoin season,” has yet to occur, chances of a positive outcome are high. Investors in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies should therefore monitor important macro data in the coming week.
After this week’s tranquil start, the US Consumer Price Index will announce one of the most crucial macro metrics for the financial markets on April 12. The Bitcoin and crypto markets may turn more volatile in accordance with the CPI data release at 8:30 am EST.
Investors will be determining if the Federal Reserve can force through another rate hike or if it will hit the pause button in light of recent US labor market statistics as well as stronger-than-expected falling inflation. The CPI for the prior month was 0.4% higher month over month and 6.0% higher compared to the previous year.
The anticipated CPI YoY for March is 5.2% and 0.3%. As markets factor in a larger likelihood of another Fed rate hike in May, a failure to meet expectations is likely to drive the price of Bitcoin lower.
Now, a 0.25% rate hike in May has a 61% probability, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. Experts presume that in the event Bitcoin is likely to rise, therefore, meet or even surpass the expectations.
The FOMC will provide the minutes’ discussion summary to the public later that day, on Wednesday, at 2:00 pm EST. Further information on the Fed’s forecasts and factors considered for the most recent interest rate decision will be provided in the meeting minutes. As a result, Wednesday is the most crucial day of the week.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) will report the unemployment claims on April 13 at 8:30 am EST. The core PPI MoM is anticipated to increase again to 0.3% (previously 0.0%). While the PPI MoM is anticipated to come in at 0.0% (previously -0.1%).
Initial claim expectations went up from the previous 228,000 to 216,000. The US labor market and ISM private sector purchasing managers index data already pointed to minor flaws in the US economy last week. At the same time, the US unemployment rate—the trailing indicator—sent a conflicting message and slightly decreased (from 3.6% to 3.5%).
The authorities will release the US retail sales report on April 14 at 8:30 am. March retail sales should fall 0.5% MoM (previously -0.4%), while core retail sales should fall 0.4% MoM (previously -0.1%). The data must be seen in the context of slowing economic growth momentum and fears of recession.
At press time, the BTC price was trading at $28,258. A daily or even weekly close of Bitcoin above $28,600 would be extremely bullish.
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