China has maintained its strict zero-COVID policy ever since the first outbreaks. However, the country is at last ready for reopening. Historic protests caused much turbulence in several major cities recently. Consequently, the government soon announced that it would lessen the restrictions.
Even though China is moving from its pandemic curbs fairly fast, concerns about the economic downfall remain. The virus cases might surge again. In that case, people with mild or easy cases will have to stay home, while more serious ones will need to move to the hospital. Moreover, businesses might run out of supplies or lose customers. Analysts think that the next six months could prove especially volatile.
According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the country should show below-consensus economic growth in the first quarters of 2023. Still, the initial stages of reopening will likely be negative for the Chinese economy. The same has already happened in other East Asian economies.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley stated that the country’s economy would likely remain subpar through the first half of 2023. Standard Chartered Plc also announced that growth in urban consumer spending would be slower than pre-pandemic rates in the coming year.
What about the Northern Ireland economy?
The Northern Ireland economy struggles like many other countries post-COVID. While some of them managed to recover more quickly, others had a hard time finding balance. Ulster University economists published a new survey today, stating that the Northern Ireland economy would decline next year. But they anticipate a weak recovery in 2024.
According to analysts, the country’s output will drop by 1.2% in the coming year. On the other hand, they forecasted a 1.7% growth in 2024, with a similar outlook for Britain as a whole. Considering that higher interest rates contribute to economic recession, the Bank of England might refrain from hiking interest rates much beyond 3%.
