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The Euro will experience some weakness in the following days amid the successful first Russia-Africa Summit. Russia is trying to leverage his win against the United States in Syria by expanding its influence in different regions. Russian President Vladimir Putin had recently visited Iran and Saudi Arabia as it tries to restore Russia as a key power in the Middle East. There were even talks that Saudi Arabia might follow Turkey in buying Russia’s S-400 missile defense system. Aside from this, Russia lead the efforts to form a Euro-Asian economic union to rival the European Union, the largest trading bloc in the world. However, along the members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) was Belarus. The EU was looking for Belarus to join the 28-member state bloc as it was the biggest ally of Russia in Europe.
The Euro will suffer following the win of Poland’s Law and Justice party (PiS) in the recent election. Forty-four percent of voters backed the party due to a well-performing economy and a good approach to the country’s welfare spending. This was despite the efforts by the European Union to bring down the party amid accusations that it was violating the EU’s rule of law. Since winning the 2015 election, the PiS party has launched unprecedented assaults on the liberal democratic structures of the states. Its leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has repeatedly cited Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as good models. Kaczynski’s model of a “Polish model of the welfare state” is based upon direct money transfers and not public services. This put Poland apart from other EU-member states that the bloc has been including on its red alert. Poland enjoys the support of its domestic power base.
The Swedish Krona is rising as Sweden gains more political follow with the European Union turning to a “green economy”. Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven delivered a speech detailing that the EU is willing to discuss the possibility of Brexit extension. This was amid the UK Parliament passing a bill forcing PM Boris Johnson to asked extension for the country’s withdrawal. Sweden added that the extension depends on the reason as to why the United Kingdom is seeking to extend the Brexit. Aside from this, Sweden voiced out its growing concern of the stronger ties between Russia and China. Moreover, Sweden is pushing the bloc to embargo weapons it sells to Turkey. This was due to Turkey’s rising military action in Northern Syria that threatened to displace four (4) million Syrian in Europe. Sweden’s rising political influence can be attributed to the Swedish teen activist Greta Thunberg.
Czech Koruna will strengthen against the single currency amid the rising reliance of the country to the United States. This was after the Czechia government dismantled a Russian espionage ring last year that had been planning cyberattacks against the European Union member states. Czech’s counterintelligence warned that Russia continue to use undeclared intelligence officers acting under diplomatic cover as part of a general hybrid warfare strategy against the EU and NATO member states. In line with this, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis said that the country will need to build a nuclear power plant. This is one step from the creation of nuclear weapons. The move is seen as a countermeasure for the country following the withdrawal of the United States and Russia from the nuclear pact treaty, the INF (Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces). This will allow these nuclear-armed countries to develop the next generation of nuclear weapons.
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