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At the moment, the US dollar to Turkish lira trading pair is inching its way up, but soon the pair is bound to reach support. The greenback is currently receiving strength from positive trade war news. Investors are starting to grow more optimistic towards the trade war of the two economic giants. However, the Turkish lira is fighting back as TRY traders gather strength from the positive news about the country’s economic activity. The forecasts for Turkey’s gross domestic product or GDP growth was recently raised. In the European Council’s Autumn 2019 economic forecasts, the EC raised its growth expectation for the country’s 2019 GDP from -2.3% to 0.3%. The report also indicated that Ankara’s unemployment rate will drop to 13.7% this year due to recovering domestic consumption and production, making a modest improvement after the economy first contracted at the beginning of 2019.
The Russian ruble recently slipped against the US dollar in Friday’s trading over the looming uncertainties surrounding the US-China trade war. The Russian currency’s odds to recover against the greenback is also slim as it’s hindered by the rising foreign currency purchases, which are getting increasingly higher than what the Russian Finance Ministry anticipated. Aside from that, the fall in Russian stocks isn’t also helping the currency to regain its footing. Although, yesterday the ruble managed to stop the US dollar’s winning streak against it as Russian investors get a boost from the central bank. On Thursday, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabuillina said that there is still more room for the central bank to ease its monetary policy, signaling further rate cuts before the year ends. This comes after the Russian bank delivered its biggest rate slash since 2017 last month by cutting it from 7% to 6.5% because of the country’s slowing inflation.
Despite being weighed down by some French data, the single currency is, of course, getting strength from positive German results. The EURAUD will make a recovery in the coming sessions as the Australian dollar receives pressure from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA recently dropped their job-related hopes and opened its arms for more possible rate cuts. The arguably dovish turn by the Australian central bank gatecrashed Aussie traders’ hope. In the bank’s monetary policy statement, it said that the Australian salary growth was “no longer expected to pick up.” Meanwhile, the sudden boost in Germany’s trade balance, imports, and exports result supported the euro. Berlin’s trade balance went up to from €18.7 billion to €19.2 billion, surprisingly beating forecasts of €18.1 billion contraction. The European Central Bank is also determined to hold on to its current monetary policy until the bloc’s condition continues to improve.
A perfect combination of a confused euro and a strong Norwegian krone is bound to drive the EURNOK trading pair past support levels. Although the single currency is currently strong as euro traders are still on high from the rebound of Germany’s economic performance, upsetting results from French reports are bound to pull the euro against the krone. Just recently, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund’s value reached a record-breaking 10 trillion Norwegian krone, or approximately $1.09 trillion. The Norwegian government immediately grasped at the chance and is starting to strategize about a large-scale shift of its investments into the United States and how it would handle climate risks. Norway’s currency and economy are also continuing to get support from its oil exports. Next to Russia, the country is the second largest oil producer of Europe. Oslo’s oil production is estimated to bring in $60 billion in direct taxes and dividends to the government.