Good day traders! Check now the most recent charts and market updates for today’s session. Learn more about analysis and be updated on the current happenings in the market!
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rates at its 0.25% low today. The decision comes after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported more than 1 million job losses from mid-March to mid-April, as well as emerging news about unemployment possibly going double for May. AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver claims this is as low as the rate is going to get, and the rates will only go up for at least three years. Analysts see the AUDCAD pair slumping into a bearish market against its previous bull since the RBA governor said the region is going through a “very difficult period.” Global financial markets are operating more efficiently than they were at the peak of the crisis, but output in the country might fall by about 10 percent over the first half of 2020. Australia’s fall will keep investors engaged against its oil-based rival, Canadian dollar, as some countries begin to transition back out of their national lockdowns raising the demand for oil.
Today’s the third day the Australian dollar skirted above the Swiss franc, pushing the pair up to the 15th rank yesterday in terms of price change. Technical analysts predict the pair is facing more selling than buying signs with a contrary trend coming only in three months-time. However, CHF already outperformed many other currencies earlier in the COVID-19 crisis. Because of this, the currency might face a market-wide sell-off, pushing the AUDCHF up until it reaches the pattern last seen in late December. By then, the Australian dollar will start to feel the effect of its first impactful recession since the 1940s to perform as one of the worst currencies if it continues to broadcast negative stimulus all the way through June. This is further proven by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep its benchmark rates by 0.25%, with experts claiming that the figure wouldn’t go further down for the next three years.
Although the GBPJPY pair has been treading relatively sideways through the month of April, investors are questioning whether or not the British pound could manage to uphold it. With May showing great reopenings around the world, most analysts believe that investors would resort to the safety of the Japanese yen over most currencies. The prediction was led by worries over another round of tariffs from the United States against Beijing over President Donald Trump’s accusation of China’s misconduct during the earlier days of the coronavirus, which might have been the primary cause of its worldwide spread. Although the long-term effects of these actions, alongside the Bank of Japan’s initiative to purchase government bonds without limit, are still questionable, the risk-sensitive pair is expected to see a bear market until the UK shows more prominent, positive news against both the US and Japan.
Due to more booming figures for other major exchanges in the foreign exchange market, the CADJPY pair has been trading sideways through the past month. It will continue this path medium-term. However, at least this month, the Canadian dollar will feel the pressure of double supply-demand shock for oil over the past two months to tread down against the Japanese yen’s safe haven status, pleasing more safety-driven conservative markets. Furthermore, Statistics Canada said its economy lowered by 9 percent in March alone. It was the deepest monthly GDP drop since 1961. These figures will push its currency down not only against the yen but a basket of other currencies seeing better results in the next quarter, especially in employment and oil exports. If the Bank of Japan’s unlimited bond-buying program sees the worst of its economy, however, the safe haven might see a decline immediately.
- Trading Instrument