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Israel’s economy fell by 7.1% in the first quarter of 2020 due to lockdowns brought by the coronavirus. Now, according to the Bank of Israel, the economy seems to be bouncing back as the country slowly reopens. As of the past two months, only its tourism and aviation industry were hit after the central bank forecasted its economy to regrow back into a 4.5% contraction for the full year, instead. Previously, the central bank anticipated a 5.3% contraction due to how fast Israel went into lockdown. Now, BoI expects GDP to grow back by 6.8% in 2021. Meanwhile, the United States is losing momentum alongside its appeal from earlier this year. In fact, after the shekel reached its strongest levels against the greenback since early March, its pair is prepping for a continuous pre-coronavirus slightly bearish levels in favor of ILS. The market is now looking forward to progress from Israel’s solar energy source, which could be the main driver of ILS.
The US dollar has been losing against the Swedish krona since late March due to the country’s controversial decision for allowing laid back lockdowns, even after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. To both economies’ surprise, recent reports emerged that the Swedish economy might still plunge nonetheless. In fact, contrary to its government’s belief, Poland is expected to recover from the coronavirus the fastest among its peers. Moreover, its central bank just announced that Sweden will experience a record decline in its GDP for the second quarter this year in comparison to other countries. It currently expects a rebound in the latter part of the year, but would take a “long time” before its situation goes back to normal. While the US economy isn’t expected to do much better, the USDSEK pair is expected to see gains, at least within the next three months, until the pair stabilizes into its pre-coronavirus levels.
The South African rand has seen consecutive gains in multiple sessions against the American dollar last week. South Africa began easing its April-imposed lockdowns last week and most businesses are now doing business again. Of course, investors are worried about another lockdown brought by another surge in cases, which could create a rocky journey with the dollar for the next three months. The country isn’t exactly prepared for this, both economically and medically. However, it’s important to note that the US dollar has weakened since its record strength earlier against most currencies in early March. The pair has been on a downward trend after several reports of lowering job counts, which was a primary problem within its economy even way before the coronavirus. Now, it looks like ZAR is about to experience even longer wins as long as the US is in chaos inside and outside the country’s borders.
After Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed on production extending oil production cuts on June 6, the Russian ruble was expected to gain against its rivals, especially after the American dollar weakened against its main counterparts. Moreover, the ruble is continuing its three-month streak above the dollar for the past three months over gradually strengthening oil-oriented markets brought by the oil cuts agreed earlier this year. Despite technical analyses showing a possible surge for the greenback-ruble exchanges in near-term, economists believe it would further reach into pre-coronavirus levels within the next three months. The oil agreement, alongside the United States’ nationwide protests and its conflict with China, will benefit the ruble near-term as long as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pushes through with its extension through the end of July, a month-long extension against the intended June cuts.
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