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The United States reported that it expects its economy to fall by 35% for the full year of 2020 just hours before the scheduled Federal Reserve meeting to decide on further coronavirus packages in the country. Although the steepest-ever recession is also expected to be the shortest, investors are less than optimistic over the US economy after the second quarter of this year, which the markets expect as what could be the worst quarter in history. The sharp drop in US crude inventories won’t be enough to buoy the greenback against the South African rand with the expectations that it will report better CPI for June on a monthly and, more surprisingly, yearly basis. Core CPI for South Africa is expected to rise from 0.2% this month against May 2020, while CPI is projected to jump from -0.6% to 0.5% in a similar time frame. When compared to last year, South African CPI is expected to step up from 2.1% to 2.2% in June.
Australia’s CPI record on Tuesday is expected to harm the market’s interest Australian dollar for upcoming terms. AUD CPI for the second quarter was better on both a quarterly and a yearly basis when it rose from -0.4% in 2019 to -0.3% in 2020 and from -2.0% in Q1 to -1.9% in Q2. However, investors are immensely disappointed by the fact that the record marked the biggest plunge in CPI for its full history. In fact, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said the dip was the largest quarterly fall in 72 years. Meanwhile, Westpac anticipates the New Zealand economy to bounce back by 14% in the September quarter. Although this is after their expected 15% drop in GDP through the first half of the year, its recovery from the spread of coronavirus cases in the country is expected to better the kiwi dollar, especially as the US-China relations remain uncertain to strengthen the engagement for the Chinese yuan alternative.
Pending home sales in the United States is expected to fall from 44.3% in May to 15% in June, marking one of many economic data that may prove that the US economy is falling to a much worse recession than they initially thought. Economists and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York predicts an annual decrease in GDP of 34.1% between April and June, and even expects another 13.3% fall between July and September. This quarter’s fall will be the worst-ever record since 1947. Meanwhile, Brazil reported a shocking cliff in unemployment rates in June in comparison to May from around 350,000 to 10,984, pumping up optimism for the real in terms of economic recovery. The same rate is expected to fall further down in its upcoming announcement as its US counterpart continues to skyrocket by millions with another lockdown led by the rapidly increasing fresh coronavirus cases in the United States.
Brazil lost 1.2 million formal jobs during the first quarter of the year, but losses soon dispersed when reports emerged that the worst is over for its economic crisis. In fact, after May lost 350,000 formal jobs, June’s figures plummeted much lower to 10,984. Although it’s important to note that its labour market, and its economy, is unsure of a V-shaped recovery, especially after it recorded the lowest figure of registered jobs of 3.76 million in June, last seen in 2011. Nonetheless, the UK economy isn’t looking much better, anyway – reports claim that its GDP might not come back to its pre-coronavirus levels until 2024. Unemployment is expected to rise from 3.9% to 9% in the next quarter while analysts also estimate the economy to shrink by 11.5% by the end of this year. Moreover, this fall was after the government had already agreed to cut taxes, support wages, and offer incentives to pump up the economy.