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The Russian ruble strengths and brings the eurozone’s single currency down this week following the EURRUB bulls’ attempt to recover. The pair is widely expected to crash to its lowest levels in about two years by the first few days of February. The Russian ruble’s run is said to be an effect of the positive external background around the country despite the rapid increase in numbers of the new coronavirus in its neighboring country. The pair is believed to gradually descend to its support levels thanks to the help from the alarmingly week German economic data. Just recently, it was reported that the January German business expectations unexpectedly dropped from 93.9% to 92.9%, of course, failing to meet projections of 95.0% growth. Meanwhile, Berlin’s Ifo business climate index, also for January, dropped from 96.3% to 95.9%, catching the experts and investors off guard as they were expecting it to gradually rise to 97.0% prior.
The euro floored its gas pedals and buckled tight in order to recover some of its major losses against the Polish zloty. Bulls successfully held on and erased some of the bears’ gains from the last month of 2019. However, the bulls weren’t successful in holding onto their recovered gains due to the week figures from Berlin. Still, looking at it, the euro has gas to push the EURPLN to its resistance as the zloty fails to maneuver. It is believed that the pair will reach its highest level since November by the first week of February. Perhaps the zloty’s strength is still drained by the weak December M3 money supply report from the country. Late last week, the National Bank of Poland issued the month-over-month results of the M3 month supply report showing contraction from 9.4% to 8.3%, unfortunately dipping even lower than projections of 9.1%. Aside from that, the slight increase in Poland’s unemployment rate is making it even difficult for bears.
The notable improvements from Sweden’s economy a causing the EURSEK pair to steadily decline in the most recent sessions. Actually, aside from that, the disappointing performance of Berlin’s economic activities also helped bears this week. Unfortunately, that won’t be the case for long as the bloc’s single currency looks to drag the Swedish krona higher in the foreign exchange. Just recently, Sweden’s unemployment rate impressively fell even bellow past its forecast of 6.3%, declining from 6.8% to 6.0% in December. Then, followed that was the positive annual PPI, retail sales, and trade balance results from the last month of 2019. Statistics Sweden recently released the year-over-year producer price index which showed slight growth from 1.2% to 1.3%. Meanwhile, the month-over-month retail sales report showed a rebound from -0.3% to 0.5%, exceeding experts’ projections of falling further below to -0.9%.
After the Hungarian National Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee announced that they’ve decided to leave their official interest rates unchanged for the first month of the new decade, the Hungarian forint immediately steadied. Unfortunately, the interest rate decision still failed to support EURHUF bears. Aside from that, the downbeat German data that was recently released this week is also weakening the euro. So, with this, it is still believed that the EURHUF will continue its upward momentum and hit its resistance by the first few days of the second month of the year. Earlier this week, the German Ifo business climate index for January was issued by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and the results showed an unexpected contraction from 96.3% to 95.9%. Then later this week, another set of German reports are expected to show contraction. Meanwhile, later today, Hungary’s quarterly unemployment rate for December is scheduled to be released.
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