Charts and Market Updates December 19, 2019

USDTRY

Despite the trade agreement uncertainties lingering around the US dollar, the Turkish lira’s fate is still sealed as the pair is widely expected its resistance soon. However, the pair’s uphill climb is anticipated to gradually slowdown as more experts project weak figures in America’s economic activities, mainly in the home sales report and manufacturing index due later today. Although it is still not certain as the United States economy recently displayed its robust nature when it crushes expectations in the JOLTs job openings and building permits report. If the US actually produced better-than-expected figures, the USDTRY could climb even higher, perhaps before the year ends it will hit its resistance. Meanwhile, the poor performance in Turkey’s economy has sent the lira on its back foot. Just recently, Turkey’s annual industrial production for October failed to reach high expectations of 6.2% and only came in at 3.8% from 3.6% prior. December 19, 2019

USDRON

After hitting its all-time lows against the greenback in late November, the Romanian leu has stubbornly tried to reel the USDRON pair lower in sessions. The leu’s source of strength is difficult to point out because of the clear lack of economic activity reports on Romania. The two most recent reports from the country are its annual consumer price index and industrial production report for November. In fact, those reports had conflicting results. The Romanian CPI rose to 3.8% from 3.4% prior, coming in hotter than forecasts of 3.7% growth. Meanwhile, the country’s month industrial production contracted to -2.15 from 1.9% prior. Perhaps the affection of investors for the Romanian leu prevented the USDRON from further going up. The budding confidence for the Romanian economy’s outlook also supports the leu. The country’s economic sentiment index, or ESI, recently peaked its highest level in almost two years.

USDRUB

The Russian ruble is looking to close the year with massive gains against the US dollar. As of the moment, the pair is on its weakest level since July 2018, and bears are looking to pull the USDRUB even lower, near June or May 2018 ranges. The good performance of Russia’s economy is making it harder for the greenback to regain its footing. Yesterday, the Russian Federation Federal Statistics Services issued its monthly unemployment rate report. The results didn’t meet expectations of a 0.1% increase in the country’s unemployed citizens, instead, it remained at 4.6%. Meanwhile, the country’s yearly retail sales figures for November increased by 0.6%, which means it went up from 1.7% to 2.3%, topping expectations of 0.5% contraction. Lastly, Moscow’s annual wage growth improved to 3.8% compared to last year’s 3.1%.

USDSEK

The Swedish krona is looking to minimize some of the greenback’s gains from this year after the pair surged in the second and third quarter this 2019. The pair is expected to touch down to its support levels by the start of 2020, a clear goal for the krona. Earlier today, the interest rate decision of the Swedish central bank helped reinforced the krona in sessions. The Sveriges Riksbank is the first central bank to lift its benchmark rates from negative territories, -0.25% to 0%. Prior to its decision, the bank has already hinted about its skepticism about the effectiveness of negative rates to the country’s economy. The Riksbank’s commendable decision buoyed the Swedish krona and defying the sluggish economy, finally drawing the line and halting its five year straight negative rates. However, the central bank emphasized that it expects to hold on to its new rates, which is 0%, for the next two years or through 2021.