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The ADP National Employment change report in the United States is expected to measure a figure of 1,500 thousand for the month of July, much lower than the 2,369 thousand achieved in June. And once again, crude oil inventories are set to record another increase since last week from -10,612 million to -3.001 million today. Services PMI is expected to inch upward, though, at 49.6 against 47.9 achieved in June. The US is also projected to record a lower trade balance for the month of June at -50.10 billion, up against the previous month at -54.60 billion. In Russia, the oil-driven economy is expected to see its CPI records on both year-over-year and month-over-month comparisons. Both figures are expected to boost for July with forecasts claiming it will record 0.4% against 0.2% seen in 2019 and 3.4% from 3.2% in June. This boost, alongside OPEC-centered news, will help the Russian ruble lift against the greenback near-term.
New Zealand’s unemployment rate recorded lower for the second quarter of 2020, signaling an improvement in the kiwi economy. Investors are now keeping a close eye on its inflation expectation report to be announced later this evening. In the meantime, rising tension between the United States and China is going to help the kiwi dollar lift against the American dollar near-term. According to the Chinese diplomat ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, both the two largest economies were at their lowest point in nearly 50 years. Notably, the critical tension won’t harm optimism for the pair’s Phase One deal. Nevertheless, the US dollar is still the weakest among most currencies including the kiwi, which could fall backdown if the US PMI, ISM non-manufacturing index, and the ADP national employment data will see positive results in a monthly basis. Even then, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI is expected to report a decline of 55.0 in July against 57.1 in June.
Retail sales in Singapore skyrocketed both on a yearly and a monthly basis, according to Statistics Singapore during its announcement earlier today. From -52.0% last year, it went up to -27.8% in 2020. Meanwhile, retail sales in June went up from -21.4% in May to 51.1% in June. These will boost the dollar as optimists help pull the greenback down against the Singaporean dollar. The US on the other hand is expected to report negativity across several figures, even on a weekly and monthly bases. ADP nonfarm employment change for July is expected to fall to 1,500 thousand from 2,369 thousand in June. ISM non-manufacturing PMI is also expected to report a fall in July from 57.1 in June to 55.0. Rising crude oil inventories will also push the greenback down the most near-term to -3.001 million from -10.612 million recorded last week. Even though Singapore reported an economic contraction for the second quarter, USD will still fall in upcoming terms.
Canada’s economy rebounded in May, two months after the Great Lockdown began in early March. Real gross domestic product grew by 4.5 percent as provinces gradually reopened. Moreover, construction had bounced back by 17.6 percent while retail trade grew a little more than 16 percent. Although many parts of the Canadian economy is still struggling, aerospace manufacturing and air transportation services especially. The former figure fell by 5.1 percent in May while the latter operated less than 4 percent of Canada’s activity prior to the coronavirus. While its tourism industry struggles to stand back up, the economy’s service sector made up for its losses with a 24.2 percent rise, while 35.1 percent of food services such as bars and restaurants opened back up. Meanwhile, after a slightly better employment change announcement from New Zealand yesterday, its kiwi is projected to fall against the loonie.