$7T US Economy Surge from Immigration by 2033

Key Points

• Immigration will add approximately $7 trillion to the US economy over the next decade.
• Federal revenues to see a $1 trillion increase due to immigration.
• Wages may grow more slowly with the influx of lower-skilled labour.
• Significant immigration from individuals entering the US both legally and illegally.
• The labour force will expand by 5.2 million people by 2033, largely from outside the US.
• Experts expect a slight decrease in inflation-adjusted wages until 2027, followed by a gradual

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released a comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of immigration in the US, forecasting a significant $7 trillion boost to the economy over the next decade. This growth is due to the crucial role of immigrants in expanding the labor force and stimulating demand in various sectors.

$1 Trillion Increase in Federal Revenue Due to Immigration

The expected surge in immigration should enhance federal revenues by an additional $1 trillion significantly. This increase is essential for supporting public services and infrastructure, underscoring the economic advantages of adopting open and managed immigration policies.

Impact of Immigration on Wage Growth and Labor Dynamics

While immigration contributes positively to the US economy, it also presents challenges, particularly regarding wage growth. The CBO anticipates that wages may experience a slower increase due to the entry of lower-skilled workers. However, this impact is complex, as the overall expansion of the labour force supports broader economic growth despite potentially exerting downward pressure on average inflation-adjusted wages until 2027.

Diversity in Immigration Sources Enhances Economic Complexity

The current wave of immigration is characterized by a mix of individuals entering the US illegally and those granted humanitarian parole. This variety in immigration sources highlights the intricate nature of immigration management and its economic consequences.

5.2M Workers Added: Immigration’s Impact on Workforce

The CBO has revised its labour force estimate for 2033 upward by 5.2 million, emphasizing the significant influence of immigration on the US workforce. This revision also acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding population projections, especially with the assumption that the current spike in immigration will persist through 2026 before tapering off.

In conclusion, the CBO’s analysis and forecasts shed light on the complex effects of immigration on the US economy. While presenting certain challenges in wage dynamics and labour force composition, immigration is shown to substantially increase GDP and federal revenues, underscoring its critical role in sustaining economic growth.